I and II are false. The correct statements for them would be: 1) positively skewed distributions have a limited, but frequent, downside, and 2) they have a less frequent, but more unlimited, upside. III is true.

An expansionary monetary policy will speed up the economic growth, increase inflation and decrease real interest rates by increasing the money supply. This decrease in real rates will cause an outflow of funds into economies offering higher rates, causing the domestic currency to depreciate. The outflow of funds will move the capital/financial account toward a deficit (or a smaller surplus). The current account will move toward a surplus since the changes in current and capital/financial accounts in a purely floating economy must equal zero. Over a slightly longer run, the depreciation in the domestic currency will increase exports and decrease imports, moving the current account further toward a surplus.
Therefore, always look at the effects on the capital/financial account first.

When an observation is made and we see a value greater than the threshold suggested by the theory, we would like to known the probability of getting the larger value due simply to chance rather than to the event being driven by the theory. For this, we need to known the right-tail probabilities under the null hypothesis.

Value-weighted return = 0.35 x 8 + 0.65 x 14 = 11.90%