Explanation
According to the ISO 22301 Auditing eBook, likelihood is defined as "the chance of something happening, whether defined, measured or determined objectively or subjectively, qualitatively or quantitatively, and described using general terms or mathematically (such as a probability or a frequency over a given time period)"1. Likelihood is one of the factors that determine the level of risk, along with the impact or consequence of an event. The probability of a threat or risk to occur is therefore equivalent to the likelihood of that event.
References: : ISO 22301 Auditing eBook, Chapter 3: Business Continuity Management System, Section 3.2:
Terms and definitions, Page 23.

Explanation
Most government policies have direct influences on how organizations shape their business strategies and plans, as they affect the legal, regulatory, economic, and social environment in which the organizations operate. Government policies can create opportunities or threats for the organizations, depending on their nature and impact. For example, government policies can affect the taxation, trade, security, environmental, and human rights aspects of the organizations' activities. Therefore, organizations need to monitor and analyze the government policies that are relevant to their business objectives and interests, and adapt their business strategies and plans accordingly. This is also important for the business continuity management system (BCMS), as it helps the organizations to identify and address the risks and opportunities related to the government policies, and to ensure the compliance and resilience of their BCMS. References: ISO 22301 Auditing eBook, page 13 1; ISO 22301:2019, clause 4.1 2